As of today, I say Hillary has an 60% chance of being the Democratic nominee, and McCain 51%. My thoughts about the others:
Romney - Good man, but he needs to win a PRIMARY. And become comfortable in his own skin. Babbling about “varmits” in trying to outgun the competition won’t work. But you have to give him credit for competing everywhere, even if his pulling out of SC and Florida was not a good sign
Fred - Good man, waited WAY to late to enter. He’s toast unless he wins South Carolina. And he needs to WORK at it if he’s serious.
Rudy - I like tough SOB types like that, but using taxpayer money to ferry his mistress around is inappropriate. And the 3 minute phone call in the middle of a speech was bizarre. His making a last stand in Florida is good, but way too risky. He should have participated in ALL primaries. At least Mitt did that.
Obama Being a rock star gets you votes in Hollywood, MTV, and in Berkeley. Not in Wichita, Grand Rapids, Columbia, Bunkie, and Farmerville. Still, you have to give the guy credit for challenging the Jack$on/$harpton monopoly on the black vote
Edwards Needs to give it up. His profiting off of poverty and his mansion is a slap in the face of those bleeding hearts who genuinely cre about those issues. And, my negative opinion aside of his behavior, he’s now a sideshow in the Hillary/Obama slugfest.
Hillary: Her sympathy factor with women voters goes up each time Rush makes another Monica joke. So she could go through the roof before it’s over!
McCain: The only relatively stable Republican candidate, even with the famous temper outbursts. Actually takes a position a sticks with it, which helps and hurts.
Romney: Pandering phony hypocrite, will change position at will to get into office. Once there, no guarantees what will happen. As President will probably boost the Library of Congress Genealogy Section budget, though.
Fred: Waiting for the writers’ strike to end before coming up with any new tired recycled speeches. Looking too old.
Rudy: Has become a fringe candidate, being upstaged by…
Ron: Perfect candidate for the issues-oriented malcontents, because he gives every crackpot group the idea that he’s THEIR crackpot; being upstaged by…
Huck: Exact polar opposite of Ron, the Republican Obama and the perfect candidate for the fuzzy keep-hope-alive Reaganite with the added benefit of knowing absolutely totally nothing about foreign policy ... a blank slate upon which the voter can project his own plan.
Obama: Just like Huck, but with the added benefit of little record to defend, so like Jindal, he just plays it slick and cool and he’s in.
Edwards: Running on substance and issues rather than puffery and image drives the professionals in this business crazy, so they keep writing him off. His “mansion” doesn’t hurt him, they all have mansions and the only people who profess to care aren’t his voters anyway, but his former running mate’s endorsement of Obama leaves him hanging.
Obama: Just like Huck, but with the added benefit of little record to defend, so like Jindal, he just plays it slick and cool and he’s in.
Edwards: Running on substance and issues rather than puffery and image drives the professionals in this business crazy, so they keep writing him off. His “mansion” doesn’t hurt him, they all have mansions and the only people who profess to care aren’t his voters anyway, but his former running mate’s endorsement of Obama leaves him hanging.
LOL - I think I know where your sympathies are. We all know “which America” he’s in. He’s wasting his time, though. It says something when even the CULINARY UNION doesn’t even give you a second glance.
And I’ll happily tell you now what I told you last summer: the pricey haircuts and profiting off the poor are offensive to those in the real world outside of Manhattan, Malibu, and Boston.
McCain 4:1
Huckabee 4:1
Romney 4:1
Rudy 6:1
All Others 20:1 at best
Rudy could carry Florida and change the status. Romney is the leader in delegates now. McCain every one knows.
IB, I don’t agree with you often but I think you nailed the standing among the R’s- McCain, Huckabilly and Romney tied. As for Rudy, he has to pick up Florida to even stay in the game at this point.
I see the race between D’s as being a little tighter than you do though.
As of today, I say Hillary has an 60% chance of being the Democratic nominee, and McCain 51%. My thoughts about the others:
Romney - Good man, but he needs to win a PRIMARY. And become comfortable in his own skin. Babbling about “varmits” in trying to outgun the competition won’t work. But you have to give him credit for competing everywhere, even if his pulling out of SC and Florida was not a good sign
Fred - Good man, waited WAY to late to enter. He’s toast unless he wins South Carolina. And he needs to WORK at it if he’s serious.
Rudy - I like tough SOB types like that, but using taxpayer money to ferry his mistress around is inappropriate. And the 3 minute phone call in the middle of a speech was bizarre. His making a last stand in Florida is good, but way too risky. He should have participated in ALL primaries. At least Mitt did that.
Obama Being a rock star gets you votes in Hollywood, MTV, and in Berkeley. Not in Wichita, Grand Rapids, Columbia, Bunkie, and Farmerville. Still, you have to give the guy credit for challenging the Jack$on/$harpton monopoly on the black vote
Edwards Needs to give it up. His profiting off of poverty and his mansion is a slap in the face of those bleeding hearts who genuinely cre about those issues. And, my negative opinion aside of his behavior, he’s now a sideshow in the Hillary/Obama slugfest.
Good analysis. McCain has a big shot in Michigan because independents will be voting in the Rep primary there since there isn’t a contested Dem primary. If Romney loses this, he is toast, because next up is Nevada and South Carolina, and McCain wins the former and Huckabee wins the later. Louisiana may actually mean something, but I think McCain warps it up in Florida. McCain will chose Huckabee or a Hispanic as his running mate.
As for Hillary and Obama, I hope they duke it out until the convention.
I watched some of the debate tonight. Paul is right in what he says but as we have all said he hasn’t a chance. The guy that struck me as impressive tonight is Thompson. His demeanor is probably not the best for campaigning but it is presidential. If I had to vote today I think I would go with him. He summed up the foolishness of the current republican party and all their spending pretty well and he actually used words like “accelarated depreciation” revealing at least some knowledge of business.
Seriously, though, if Hillary is allowed to play the victimized woman, she’ll win. On the other hand, her campaign can collapse if she and Bill are allowed to be their narcissistic selves.
As of today, I say Hillary has an 60% chance of being the Democratic nominee, and McCain 51%. My thoughts about the others:
Romney - Good man, but he needs to win a PRIMARY. And become comfortable in his own skin. Babbling about “varmits” in trying to outgun the competition won’t work. But you have to give him credit for competing everywhere, even if his pulling out of SC and Florida was not a good sign
Fred - Good man, waited WAY to late to enter. He’s toast unless he wins South Carolina. And he needs to WORK at it if he’s serious.
Rudy - I like tough SOB types like that, but using taxpayer money to ferry his mistress around is inappropriate. And the 3 minute phone call in the middle of a speech was bizarre. His making a last stand in Florida is good, but way too risky. He should have participated in ALL primaries. At least Mitt did that.
Obama Being a rock star gets you votes in Hollywood, MTV, and in Berkeley. Not in Wichita, Grand Rapids, Columbia, Bunkie, and Farmerville. Still, you have to give the guy credit for challenging the Jack$on/$harpton monopoly on the black vote
Edwards Needs to give it up. His profiting off of poverty and his mansion is a slap in the face of those bleeding hearts who genuinely cre about those issues. And, my negative opinion aside of his behavior, he’s now a sideshow in the Hillary/Obama slugfest.
Good analysis. McCain has a big shot in Michigan because independents will be voting in the Rep primary there since there isn’t a contested Dem primary. If Romney loses this, he is toast, because next up is Nevada and South Carolina, and McCain wins the former and Huckabee wins the later. Louisiana may actually mean something, but I think McCain warps it up in Florida. McCain will chose Huckabee or a Hispanic as his running mate.
As for Hillary and Obama, I hope they duke it out until the convention.
Where it gets interesting is when we get to the Democrats/Republcians only primaries. Like Florida. Or California. Or Pennsylvania. Or New York.
Unless he gets a reality check, Edwards can/will be the Kucinich like spoiler.
As for our fair state,....well, I see Thompson and Huck battling it out. Mitt and McCain won’t play too well here.
I see Thompson and Huck battling it out. Mitt and McCain won’t play too well here.
If McCain can lead in South Carolina, why can’t he lead here??
Also of interest, the social conservative vs. fiscal conservative issue, though Matthews acts like Giuliani has not become a fringe candidate. (Above poll has him tied in SC with Paul at 5%)
I see Thompson and Huck battling it out. Mitt and McCain won’t play too well here.
If McCain can lead in South Carolina, why can’t he lead here??
Also of interest, the social conservative vs. fiscal conservative issue, though Matthews acts like Giuliani has not become a fringe candidate. (Above poll has him tied in SC with Paul at 5%)
People in the party I’ve talked to are drooling over ole Fred (Thompson, not our favorite conservative poster .
Personally, I favor the managerial competence of Mitt (I’ve been tarred as a Rockefeller Republican before, so I can take a slingshot or two on this preference). My second choice is now McCain. I would have said in the past that Rudy is my second choice, but I have doubts about his candidacy. The three minute phone call and using taxpayer money to ferry his mistress around are bizarre. Plus, I think Rudy’s stayed out of the fray too long. Voters are moving onto other pastures.
