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predictions for November 4
Posted: 27 October 2008 01:18 PM   [ Ignore ]
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These are for predictions only; not who you are voting for, but who you think will win.

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1.  Electoral College votes for U.S. President (538 total, 270 needed to win)
Democratic Party, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Democrat
Republican Party, John McCain, Sarah Palin, Republican
other

2.  Seats in the U.S. Senate (100 total)
Democratic
Republican
other

3.  Seats in the U.S. House of Representatives (435 total)
Democratic
Republican
other

4.  U.S. President, Louisiana vote by percentage
Democratic Party, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Democrat
Green Party, Cynthia McKinney,Rosa Clemente, Green
Republican Party, John McCain, Sarah Palin, Republican
Constitution Party, Chuck Baldwin, Darrell Castle, Other
Independent, Ralph Nader, Matt Gonzalez, Other
Louisiana Taxpayers Party, “Ron” Paul,Barry Goldwater,Jr., Other
Prohibition, Gene Amondson, Leroy Pletten, Other
Socialism and Liberation, Gloria La Riva, Eugene Puryear, Other
Socialist Workers Party, James Harris, Alyson Kennedy, Other

5.  U.S. Senate, by percentage
Mary Landrieu, Democrat
Richard Fontanesi, Libertarian
John Kennedy, Republican
“Jay” Patel, No Party
Robert Stewart, Other

6.  U. S. Representative, 1st Congressional District, by percentage
“Jim” Harlan, Democrat
“Steve” Scalise, Republican

7.  U. S. Representative, 2nd Congressional District-Democratic Party, by percentage
William J. Jefferson, Democrat
Helena Moreno, Democrat

8.  U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District-Democratic Party, by percentage
Willie Banks, Democrat
Paul J. Carmouche, Democrat

9.  U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District-Republican Party, by percentage
John Fleming, Republican
“Chris” Gorman, Republican

10.  U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District, by percentage
William “Bill” Cassidy, Republican
“Don” Cazayoux, Democrat
Michael Jackson, No Party

11.  U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District, by percentage
Charles W. Boustany, Jr., Republican
Donald “Don” Cravins, Jr., Democrat
Peter Vidrine, Other

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Posted: 27 October 2008 01:20 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
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Troll, theres no predictions..

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Posted: 27 October 2008 03:05 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
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fred, the first post has the candidates, and you’re welcome to post your own predictions.  My predictions are below, although I’m not finished with them yet.

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1.  Electoral College votes for U.S. President (538 total, 270 needed to win)
298 McCain
240 Obama

2.  Seats in the U.S. Senate (100 total)
59 Democrat
41 Republican

3.  Seats in the U.S. House of Representatives (435 total)

4.  U.S. President, Louisiana vote by percentage
45% Democratic Party, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Democrat
54.5% Republican Party, John McCain, Sarah Palin, Republican
0.5% other

5.  U.S. Senate, by percentage
56.3% Mary Landrieu, Democrat
43% John Kennedy, Republican
0.7% other

6.  U. S. Representative, 1st Congressional District, by percentage
18% “Jim” Harlan, Democrat
82% “Steve” Scalise, Republican

7.  U. S. Representative, 2nd Congressional District-Democratic Party, by percentage
63% William J. Jefferson, Democrat
37% Helena Moreno, Democrat

8.  U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District-Democratic Party, by percentage
36% Willie Banks, Democrat
64% Paul J. Carmouche, Democrat

9.  U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District-Republican Party, by percentage
43% John Fleming, Republican
57% “Chris” Gorman, Republican

10.  U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District, by percentage
35% William “Bill” Cassidy, Republican
42% “Don” Cazayoux, Democrat
23% Michael Jackson, No Party

11.  U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District, by percentage
47% Charles W. Boustany, Jr., Republican
51.5% Donald “Don” Cravins, Jr., Democrat
1.5% Peter Vidrine, Other

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Posted: 27 October 2008 03:10 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
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Trollfessor - 27 October 2008 03:05 PM

fred, the first post has the candidates, and you’re welcome to post your own predictions.  My predictions are below, although I’m not finished with them yet.

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1.  Electoral College votes for U.S. President (538 total, 270 needed to win)
2.  Seats in the U.S. Senate (100 total)
3.  Seats in the U.S. House of Representatives (435 total)

4.  U.S. President, Louisiana vote by percentage
45% Democratic Party, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Democrat
54.5% Republican Party, John McCain, Sarah Palin, Republican
0.5% other

5.  U.S. Senate, by percentage
56.3% Mary Landrieu, Democrat
43% John Kennedy, Republican
0.7% other

6.  U. S. Representative, 1st Congressional District, by percentage
82% “Jim” Harlan, Democrat
18% “Steve” Scalise, Republican

7.  U. S. Representative, 2nd Congressional District-Democratic Party, by percentage
63% William J. Jefferson, Democrat
37% Helena Moreno, Democrat

8.  U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District-Democratic Party, by percentage
36% Willie Banks, Democrat
64% Paul J. Carmouche, Democrat

9.  U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District-Republican Party, by percentage
43% John Fleming, Republican
57% “Chris” Gorman, Republican

10.  U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District, by percentage
35% William “Bill” Cassidy, Republican
42% “Don” Cazayoux, Democrat
23% Michael Jackson, No Party

11.  U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District, by percentage
47% Charles W. Boustany, Jr., Republican
51.5% Donald “Don” Cravins, Jr., Democrat
1.5% Peter Vidrine, Other

I think you need to correct your 1st district assessment. You really think the guy with a Pakistan flag for a sign is going to get 82% of the vote?

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Posted: 27 October 2008 03:13 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
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You may want to revise your numbers, Troll. Ted Stevens just got convicted, so assuming that he’ll step down, Alaska will gain a Democrat senator. These guys are amazing.

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Posted: 27 October 2008 03:37 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
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Thanks, Avman, I had my 1st district numbers reversed.  Now corrected.

maurepas1, question 5 is the Louisiana vote for Senate, and question 2 is for the final seat count in the Senate.  There are 35 races for Senate on November 4, and currently, Republicans hold 23 of those seats and Democrats hold 12 of them.

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Posted: 27 October 2008 03:58 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
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Trollfessor - 27 October 2008 03:05 PM

fred, the first post has the candidates, and you’re welcome to post your own predictions.  My predictions are below, although I’m not finished with them yet.

.

.

.





1.  Electoral College votes for U.S. President (538 total, 270 needed to win)
2.  Seats in the U.S. Senate (100 total)
3.  Seats in the U.S. House of Representatives (435 total)

4.  U.S. President, Louisiana vote by percentage
45% Democratic Party, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Democrat
54.5% Republican Party, John McCain, Sarah Palin, Republican
0.5% other

5.  U.S. Senate, by percentage
56.3% Mary Landrieu, Democrat
43% John Kennedy, Republican
0.7% other

6.  U. S. Representative, 1st Congressional District, by percentage
18% “Jim” Harlan, Democrat
82% “Steve” Scalise, Republican

7.  U. S. Representative, 2nd Congressional District-Democratic Party, by percentage
63% William J. Jefferson, Democrat
37% Helena Moreno, Democrat

8.  U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District-Democratic Party, by percentage
36% Willie Banks, Democrat
64% Paul J. Carmouche, Democrat

9.  U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District-Republican Party, by percentage
43% John Fleming, Republican
57% “Chris” Gorman, Republican

10.  U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District, by percentage
35% William “Bill” Cassidy, Republican
42% “Don” Cazayoux, Democrat
23% Michael Jackson, No Party

11.  U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District, by percentage
47% Charles W. Boustany, Jr., Republican
51.5% Donald “Don” Cravins, Jr., Democrat
1.5% Peter Vidrine, Other

You think Don Cravins, Jr. gets 51%?

I think Boustany wins, about 55-40, with 5% going to Vidrine, most from pissed off conservatives who are still upset about Boustany flipping on the bailout bill.

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The Republican Party needs to CHANGE its leadership.

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Posted: 27 October 2008 04:01 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
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Nick - 27 October 2008 03:58 PM

You think Don Cravins, Jr. gets 51%?

I think Boustany wins, about 55-40, with 5% going to Vidrine, most from pissed off conservatives who are still upset about Boustany flipping on the bailout bill.

You folks in that district really need to punish Boustany for his vote on the bailout.  He ain’t no Republican.

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Posted: 27 October 2008 04:05 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]
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Nick, mine are mere guesses and I really don’t expect to be correct.  In the 7th district, it is my general understanding that the race is close, and since there should be a high black voter turnout, I figured that Cravins might get enough to win.

I’m not involved in any of the campaigns and I have not seen any polls on any of the races, except for those that have been discussed on this forum.

I wish TaxMan would be around, he has a MUCH better command of election day numbers than I ever will have.

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Posted: 27 October 2008 04:07 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 9 ]
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maurepas1 - 27 October 2008 04:01 PM

Nick - 27 October 2008 03:58 PM

You think Don Cravins, Jr. gets 51%?

I think Boustany wins, about 55-40, with 5% going to Vidrine, most from pissed off conservatives who are still upset about Boustany flipping on the bailout bill.

You folks in that district really need to punish Boustany for his vote on the bailout.  He ain’t no Republican.

Well...he’s a country club Republican.

TALKS about doing things and smaller government.  Whether the fight is in him, we haven’t seen it.

However, I just don’t think enough people know there is a third candidate in the race who’s not a complete kook.  I haven’t talked to many people who took the time to watch the televised debate last week, the only televised debate Boustany’s partaking in, and the LA Family Forum ommitted him from their “voters’ guide”.

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Posted: 27 October 2008 04:35 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 10 ]
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Good for Family Forum. Finally they get one right. Boustany is as much an honorable and “family man” as Bill Clinton. No wait that’s an insult to the former President. He has much more integrity than Boustany. I hope Cravins wins.

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Posted: 27 October 2008 04:43 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 11 ]
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undaunted - 27 October 2008 04:35 PM

Good for Family Forum. Finally they get one right. Boustany is as much an honorable and “family man” as Bill Clinton. No wait that’s an insult to the former President. He has much more integrity than Boustany. I hope Cravins wins.

Actually, the LA Family Forum left the Constitution Party candidate, Peter Vidrine, off their “voters guide”.  Boustany was on there, meanwhile, Don Cravins, Jr. opted not to even fill out their questionaire.

Don Cravins, Jr. authored a property-grab bill this past session, SB 811, expanding eminent domain powers for government, and last year voted FOR a junvenile criminal bill (HB 1142) that sought to provide automatic eligibility for parole for anyone who committed a crime at the age of 15 and 16, even if that crime was murder and they were previously sentenced as adults without parole.

Soft on criminals and disregard for indivudual property rights

Now THAT’s credibility.

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The Republican Party needs to CHANGE its leadership.

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Posted: 27 October 2008 05:12 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 12 ]
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All but maybe one Republican did not vote for the bill. It was Jindal administration supported. Michot, Moorish, Cassidy, Crowe, Nevers, and Riser are just a few who voted for the bill. Those are some of the most conservative names in the state senate. Many of those are in that congressional district. Boustany voted for a payraise. Cravins did not. The list goes on.

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Posted: 27 October 2008 08:05 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 13 ]
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I can’t attempt these all, but Obama will win about 280 electoral votes.

Landrieu will win with 53%.

McCain will win LOUISIANA with 55% and lose Florida and Ohio. He will win Virginia and West Virginia.

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Posted: 28 October 2008 10:49 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 14 ]
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1. Obama wins 53-45 with 349 EVs
2. Dems will have 59 members in the Senate (when counting Sanderes & Lieberman)
3. Dems will have 257 members in the House
4. McCain wins LA 53-46
5. Landrieu wins Senate 52-48
6. Scalise wins 1st CD 56-44
7. Jefferson wins 2nd CD Dem run-off 59-41
8. Carmouche wins 4th CD Dem run-off 57-43
9. Gorman wins 4th CD GOP run-off 50.5-49.5
10.  Cazayoux wins 6th CD with 42, Cassidy gets 40 & Jax gets 18
11.  Bustany wins 7th CD 50-47

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Posted: 28 October 2008 11:19 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 15 ]
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undaunted - 27 October 2008 05:12 PM

All but maybe one Republican did not vote for the bill. It was Jindal administration supported. Michot, Moorish, Cassidy, Crowe, Nevers, and Riser are just a few who voted for the bill. Those are some of the most conservative names in the state senate. Many of those are in that congressional district. Boustany voted for a payraise. Cravins did not. The list goes on.

You’re right.  The members of the LA House and Senate screwed up on SB 811.  I don’t think they really looked into the fact that Don Cravins’s wife sits on the Board of Directors of a local group that has sought “underused” North Lafayette properties for a couple years.

Suddenly, Cravins authors a bill to help them out in taking individual property.

Also, according to his vote in 2007 on HB 1142, Cravins seems to think amnesty should be granted to criminals who have previously been convicted and sentenced to 20+ yrs. with no parole.

Boustany did vote for the bailout, and too bad the Constitution Party candidate, Peter Vidrine, has received little coverage or recognition.

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