“Don” Cazayoux (D)
Term limited in 2011
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 6,849 (59%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 4,685 (41%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 8,342 (60%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 5,476 (40%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 8,734 (52%)
John Kerry (D) 7,819 (47%)
Others 170 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 7,085 (45%)
Chris John (D) 5,326 (34%)
Others 3,443 (21%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 3,702 (44%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 3,085 (36%)
Mike Francis (R) 878 (10%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 310 (4%)
Others 480 (6%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 7,014 (46%)
Walter Boasso (D) 3,397 (22%)
John Georges (I) 1,739 (11%)
Foster Campbell (D) 2,631 (17%)
Others 344 (4%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 7,508 (53%)
Mike Strain (R) 4,952 (35%)
Wayne Carter (R) 1,121 (8%)
Don Johnson (R) 676 (5%)

The River Parishes, which stretch from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya junction to the outskirts of metropolitan New Orleans, are a unique combination of plantation heritage, petrochemical plants, and sugarcane farms. This mixture of agriculture and industry has made the area a populist Democratic stronghold.

House District 18 is one of several districts that contain the River Parishes. It is mostly located on the western side of the Mississippi River and includes Pointe Coupee Parish, most of West Baton Rouge (except for Brusly and some African-American neighborhoods in Port Allen), and a rural precinct in West Feliciana Parish across the river containing the Angola Prison. It contains a significant (33%, which hasn’t changed in several years) African-American population, plus enough populist white Democratic farmers and unionized plant workers to keep the district in Democratic hands. This mixture of African-American voters and populist whites has largely remained static: the district has barely grown at all, and all of its “growth” has been post-Katrina.

However, while the district has a decided Democratic preference, the Democratic margins are not as top heavy as they are in African-American neighborhoods. Mary Landrieu’s 59% of the vote was partially due to her stance against sugar imports – a smart stance to take in this sugarcane-heavy district. Kathleen Blanco’s Acadian origins helped her get 60% of the vote here. But George Bush’s margins in West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana lifted him to a 52-47% victory here. And with sugar imports not a major issue for either Senate candidate in 2004, David Vitter received a respectable 45-34% plurality here. This Republican “trend” continued in 2007, when “Bobby” Jindal improved on his 2003 showing by receiving 46% of the vote. These recent returns suggest that a Republican has a 40-46% base of support here, but the “populist coalition” generally prevails in a Republican/Democratic contest.

Legislative races in the River Parishes tend to be competitive, and District 18 is no exception. For years, New Roads Democrat Clyde Kimball (whose wife is a state Supreme Court justice) represented the area. He retired in 1991, and Democrat Mike Russo won a hard fought runoff 53-47%. Russo only served one term, and led in the 1995 primary against Democratic attorney Rob Marionneaux 44-42% (a Republican got 14%), so Rep. Russo withdrew. Marionneaux served one term before vacating the seat to run for the state Senate. Assistant DA Don Cazayoux then was elected in the first primary with 54% of the vote, and was unopposed both in 2003 and 2007.

Representative Cazayoux seems to have a lock on the district now, so we rate this seat as a “Democratic hold.” Even when he is term-limited in 2011, we see that Democrats would likely hold onto this seat, based on past election performance. While West Baton Rouge is poised to share in some of the explosive suburban growth around Baton Rouge, most of the growing areas were placed in a neighboring state House district.