T. Taylor Townsend (D)
Term limited in 2011
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 4,979 (54%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 4,267 (46%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 6,523 (57%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 4,910 (43%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 9,723 (55%)
John Kerry (D) 7,688 (43%)
Others 317 (2%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 7,943 (48%)
Chris John (D) 4,537 (27%)
Others 4,209 (25%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 1,204 (24%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 1,462 (29%)
Mike Francis (R) 1,421 (28%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 418 (8%)
Others 572 (11%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 6,496 (47%)
Walter Boasso (D) 2,661 (19%)
John Georges (I) 1,162 (8%)
Foster Campbell (D) 3,170 (23%)
Others 363 (3%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 6,530 (50%)
Mike Strain (R) 3,757 (29%)
Wayne Carter (R) 1,687 (13%)
Don Johnson (R) 983 (8%)

John Maginnis once noted that Natchitoches Parish is “…evenly split between college town residents (it is the home of Northwestern State University) and cotton and soybean farmers.” This college-town/rural split, combined with a large (37%) and stable African-American minority, has apparently made the district a political bellwether. Not only has it supported the winner with about the same percentage as the statewide average in recent statewide elections, but it has a perfect record of supporting the winner in the 17 contested Presidential, Gubernatorial, and Senate elections since 1980.

District 23 itself contains all of Natchitoches Parish and four precincts in Winn Parish. In addition to being a bellwether for statewide races, the district has also seen population growth at about the statewide rate, although the Winn Parish portion of the district (about 5% of the electorate) has lost voters.

The district was represented for 32 years by Natchitoches Democrat Jimmy Long. He rarely had competition at election time, but he was forced into a runoff in 1991, and in the 1999 primary, he was upset by Democratic attorney Taylor Townsend 51-49%. Rep. Townsend was easily re-elected in 2003 with 83% of the vote against a Republican.

While Rep. Townsend would have had no trouble holding this seat, he is running for Mike Smith’s term-limited state senate seat. Three Democrats (“Mack” James, Joe Sampite, and School Board member Ralph Wilson) and Republican “Rick” Nowlin are seeking the open seat. We see the district’s combination of rural areas, college town residents, and a high African-American population as reason to rate the district as a “likely Democratic hold.”