John Smith (D)
Term limited in 2007
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 3,295 (50%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 3,273 (50%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 3,608 (56%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 2,807 (44%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 6,809 (65%)
John Kerry (D) 3,597 (34%)
Others 120 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 5,112 (54%)
Chris John (D) 2,915 (31%)
Others 1,400 (15%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 580 (16%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 988 (26%)
Mike Francis (R) 1,339 (36%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 394 (11%)
Others 421 (11%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 3,283 (50%)
Walter Boasso (D) 1,070 (16%)
John Georges (I) 827 (13%)
Foster Campbell (D) 1,155 (18%)
Others 253 (3%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 3,077 (50%)
Mike Strain (R) 1,672 (27%)
Wayne Carter (R) 850 (14%)
Don Johnson (R) 588 (10%)

District 30 is located in Central Louisiana and is shaped like a question mark in reverse. It begins in the northeast corner of Vernon Parish, curves around to go through Leesville, and ends in the town of DeRidder in Beauregard Parish, with most of the population living in Vernon Parish. It has a moderate (23%) African-American population, which has remained steady throughout the decade. The district’s count of registered voters has also slightly decreased about 1% since 2003, although decreases in Vernon Parish were partially offset by gains in DeRidder. Like House District 24 to the north (House Speaker Joe Salter’s district), it is a swing district in contested statewide races that tends to give narrow margins to candidates of either party. Mary Landrieu only received 50% of the vote, then the district supported Kathleen Blanco with 56% of the vote. Like North Louisiana in general, the district clearly preferred conservative candidates last year – George Bush received 65% of the vote, and David Vitter carried the district 54-31%. An interesting side note: Chris John’s percentage was slightly higher here than in most North Louisiana districts, probably because he is married to the daughter of the district’s representative, John Smith.

John Smith has represented this district since 1987, and seems to get competition every other election cycle: he was unopposed in 1995 and 2003, but was challenged in 1991 and 1999, receiving at least 58% of the vote in those two contests. He is term-limited in 2007 and is running for James David Cain’s term-limited state senate seat

We rate this open seat race as a tossup in 2007. Republicans have been elected from the area: its Congressman Jim McCrery is from Leesville, and its Senator James David Cain is a recent convert to the Republican party. However, there is a significant African-American population, which provides a base of support for a Democratic candidate, and Vernon Parish generally tends to split between the parties in statewide races. This is another LCRM targeted seat, with two Republicans (Overton Burns and Jack Causey) facing Democrat James Armes.