Diane Winston (R)
Term limited in 2007
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 4,049 (29%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 10,082 (71%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 4,045 (25%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 11,866 (75%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 17,495 (78%)
John Kerry (D) 4,801 (21%)
Others 197 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 16,995 (77%)
Chris John (D) 2,660 (12%)
Others 2,335 (11%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 3,988 (57%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 963 (14%)
Mike Francis (R) 1,161 (17%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 792 (11%)
Others 41 (1%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 13,063 (77%)
Walter Boasso (D) 1,483 (9%)
John Georges (I) 1,754 (10%)
Foster Campbell (D) 633 (4%)
Others 128 (1%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 2,411 (15%)
Mike Strain (R) 11,580 (70%)
Wayne Carter (R) 1,955 (12%)
Don Johnson (R) 523 (3%)

House District 77 is one of several districts in the Florida Parishes whose political complexion and partisan representation have been significantly changed by suburbanization. This district also played a part in the Republican surge of 1995 that brought a lot of additional Republicans into the Legislature.

The district itself contains portions of two parishes – the western fringe of St. Tammany Parish (which casts 83% of the district vote) centered on Madisonville and Covington, and the southeastern fringe of Tangipahoa Parish. Demographically, there is little difference between the portions of the two parishes in the district. Both areas are nearly all white, and in fact, the district-wide African-American voting population has decreased from 7 to 6% in recent years. And both parishes have recently seen heavy growth; the district’s 25% growth rate (which is TEN TIMES the statewide rate) is the second fastest rate of growth of a state house district. And this double-digit growth is occurring in both parishes, as the I-12 corridor has become an attractive place for former residents of Jefferson, Orleans, and (more recently) St. Bernard parishes.

This rapid growth has also made the district favorable territory for Republicans. In recent statewide races, all Republicans except Suzy Terrell received 3 to 1 (or better) support in the district. And in Suzy Terrell’s case, she still received 71% of the vote against New Orleans native and incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu. These levels of Republican support, in fact, have made District 77 among the five most Republican state House seats in Louisiana. It is noteworthy, however, that while the portion of Tangipahoa Parish typically votes almost as heavily Republican as St. Tammany, Bobby Jindal’s support there was 20 percent less than in St. Tammany – it was drop-offs in places like these and in places like the all white suburbs north of Alexandria that contributed to Kathleen Blanco’s upset victory in 2003.

Curiously, the Republican dominance here is a recent phenomenon in terms of state house representation. After the district was created in 1983, Democrat Eddie Deano was elected in the runoff and served for three terms. Not only was he re-elected with at least 61% of the vote, but his re-election races were without significant Republican opposition. When he retired, however, Republican Diane Winston was elected in the runoff after strong opposition from then-Democrat Jay Blossman (Blossman now represents the area as a Republican on the Public Service Commission). In that race, her 52% victory was achieved by carrying St. Tammany with 53% of the vote; she only received 44% of the vote in Tangipahoa. Since that initial race, Rep. Winston was unopposed in 1999 and 2003.

Representative Winston is term limited in 2007. Perhaps in anticipation of this, she ran for an open state Senate seat in the area in 2005 and received 49% of the vote against fellow Republican Julie Quinn. In the precincts she represented, however, she received over 70% of the vote. She originally sought a rematch against Sen. Quinn, but backed out of the race shortly after qualifying. Two Republicans and a Democrat are running to succeed Rep. Winston: business consultant Colleen Hawley, Army veteran/homebuilder John Schroder, and business owner (and lone Democrat in the race) Angelique Lacour.

Even though this will be an open seat race next year, we don’t anticipate significant partisan competition like there was in 1995; Republicans currently have a 47-29% voter registration edge, and since the last election, new voter registrations have been 56-34% Republican. Therefore, we rate this seat as a ”Republican hold.”

There was some impact from both hurricanes, as the eye of Hurricane Katrina passed just to the east of this district, causing a fair amount of wind damage, power outages for a couple of weeks, and storm surge just to the east of the district. However, the area has been recovering, and there has been an influx of people from metro New Orleans, as evidenced by a gain of over 4,300 voters since the storm, with over 85% settling in St. Tammany Parish.