Cameron Henry (R)
Term limited in 2019
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 5,106 (41%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 7,479 (59%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 4,202 (32%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 8,966 (68%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 11,707 (65%)
John Kerry (D) 6,103 (34%)
Others 204 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 11,593 (67%)
Chris John (D) 2,859 (17%)
Others 2,913 (16%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 2,159 (39%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 1,013 (18%)
Mike Francis (R) 662 (12%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 1,273 (23%)
Others 415 (8%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 7,711 (69%)
Walter Boasso (D) 1,119 (10%)
John Georges (I) 1,674 (15%)
Foster Campbell (D) 504 (5%)
Others 118 (1%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 2,905 (28%)
Mike Strain (R) 5,527 (53%)
Wayne Carter (R) 1,583 (15%)
Don Johnson (R) 449 (4%)

House District 82 contains three parts. There are the precincts in the Eastbank of Jefferson Parish bordered by Airline Highway, the Soniat Canal, and the Orleans Parish line. North of this area is a group of about 15 precincts north of Airline along Transcontinental Drive stretching into Metairie. Finally, the district contains four uptown New Orleans precincts.

Within the district itself are interesting variances in political preferences: the “Metairie” precincts are over 95% white and voted 3 to 1 for Bush. The precincts south of Airline Highway are more racially mixed (17% African American) and working-class. Bush only received 58% of the vote here. The uptown New Orleans precincts are very liberal: though the African-American influence is 26% of the vote (down from 28% several years ago), John Kerry scored an impressive 3 to 1 victory here. These precincts, however, are about 8% of the total electorate, so their political effect on the district is relatively minor.

Overall, the district is 10% African-American (it was 9% several years ago) and has had very little change in its voter population since 2003, although the Uptown New Orleans precincts saw their voter population increase 10%. Generally, the district will support Republicans, but not by as large of a margin as other Republican seats on the Eastbank of Jefferson Parish. A typical margin of Republican support here is about 65% of the vote. Suzy Terrell’s 59% of the vote here was low, but Senator Landrieu (and her family’s) New Orleans origins helped cut into Terrell’s margins in Jefferson Parish.

This district was one of several districts whose legislators switched parties in the mid 1980s and gave the Republicans some initial visibility in the House. Quentin Dastague was its representative from 1983 to 1995. He switched parties in 1984 was rewarded with 64% and 73% victories against Democratic opponents in 1987 and 1991. He retired in 1995 to make an abortive attempt to run for Governor. Republican Steve Scalise succeeded him. In his initial race in 1995, he defeated a Democrat and an Independent with 68% of the vote, was re-elected with 66% in 1999, and was unopposed in 2003. Like former Representative Dastague, he likewise made an abortive attempt to run for a higher office; in Scalise’s case, the “higher office” was an open Congressional seat last year that “Bobby” Jindal ultimately won.

Representative Scalise was term-limited in 2007 and successfully ran for Ken Hollis’ term-limited state senate seat. We rate this district as a “Republican hold.” Though there is a strong liberal base in the portion of Uptown New Orleans, and Bush received less than 60% of the vote in the heart of the district, a Democrat has not come close to winning this seat in over 20 years; even with an open seat in 1995 with similar district lines, the Republican candidate still received 68% of the vote. In the race to succeed Rep. Scalise, business analyst (and former Scalise aide) Cameron Henry defeated a fellow Republican with 57% of the vote. Rep. Tidmore, like Joe Lopinto in a neighboring district, was aided by an endorsement of the Alliance for Good Government.

Though there was some damage from Hurricane Katrina, the district was spared most the flooding from the levee breaks after the storm. We still forecast that Jefferson Parish will feel some of the effects of population out migration from metropolitan New Orleans, and have seen a loss of 300 voters since the storm.