Joel Chaisson II (D)
Term limited in 2011
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 17,611 (51%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 16,770 (49%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 19,584 (46%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 22,504 (54%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 30,254 (58%)
John Kerry (D) 21,634 (41%)
Others 674 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 26,759 (54%)
Chris John (D) 11,715 (24%)
Others 10,719 (22%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 5,411 (33%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 4,772 (29%)
Mike Francis (R) 2,299 (14%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 2,500 (15%)
Others 1,358 (8%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 22,257 (57%)
Walter Boasso (D) 5,540 (14%)
John Georges (I) 8,006 (21%)
Foster Campbell (D) 2,152 (6%)
Others 796 (2%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 15,669 (43%)
Mike Strain (R) 13,175 (37%)
Wayne Carter (R) 5,481 (15%)
Don Johnson (R) 1,748 (5%)

Senate District 19 is at the edge of the New Orleans metropolitan area and includes St. Charles Parish, most of the East Bank of St. John Parish, and the northern portions of Lafourche Parish around Thibodaux. It has a moderate 28% African-American voter population (up from 26% after the district lines were drawn). The increase in the African-American vote is mostly due to African-American suburban migration to St. John Parish, which has increased that parish’s share of the African-American vote from 36 to 41% of the vote since 2003.

The district has seen some suburban migration from the New Orleans area, as its 5% growth twice the statewide rate of increase. While all three parishes have seen growth, St. Charles Parish has grown the fastest with 6% growth.

Politically, Senate District 19 is a swing district, with the slight Republican leanings of St. Charles Parish (which casts 42% of the vote) offset by the Democratic leanings of Lafourche and St. John Parishes. In recent elections, it not only has supported the winner 5 out of 6 times, but its percentage support has been within 1-4 percentage point of the winning candidates’ statewide average. The one time the district voted for a loser was when it gave 54% of the vote to Bobby Jindal in 2003, mostly because of his regional strength in the New Orleans media market.

The suburban growth has not yet had an impact on the district’s partisan representation, as Democrats have represented the area for years. And, except for two contested elections in the 1990s, the district has had steady representation in the state Senate. Democrat Ron Landry of LaPlace represented the area for 6 terms and had little trouble winning re-election. However, he was held to 52% of the vote in 1995 against a fellow Democrat, and Democratic state Representative Joel Chaisson II upset Sen. Landry 53-47% in 1999. After his initial election. Sen. Chaisson has had little trouble holding the seat – he was unopposed in 2003 and again in 2007.

Senator Chaisson is allowed to serve another term. When term-limits force him to retire in 2011, continued suburban migration (particularly in St. Charles Parish) lead us to rate this seat as a tossup. A lot depends on whether the Republicans can nominate a candidate who can both sweep St. Charles Parish and hold down the Democratic margins in St. John and Lafourche Parishes.