Mike Michot (R)
Term limited in 2011
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 9,987 (31%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 22,160 (69%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 15,318 (39%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 24,121 (61%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 40,360 (75%)
John Kerry (D) 13,059 (24%)
Others 614 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 31,990 (61%)
Chris John (D) 16,189 (31%)
Others 4,024 (8%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 3,823 (25%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 2,291 (15%)
Mike Francis (R) 7,627 (49%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 1,010 (6%)
Others 857 (5%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 23,480 (69%)
Walter Boasso (D) 3,610 (11%)
John Georges (I) 4,517 (13%)
Foster Campbell (D) 2,103 (6%)
Others 389 (1%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 8,447 (26%)
Mike Strain (R) 17,075 (53%)
Wayne Carter (R) 4,399 (14%)
Don Johnson (R) 2,539 (8%)

Senate District 23 can be simply thought of as the “South Lafayette district.” It contains nearly all of the affluent majority white precincts south of I-10 and a couple of precincts north of I-10 in Lafayette Parish. The area’s low (8%) and stable African-American voter population is the third lowest of all 39 Senate districts. It has also had a 7% increase in registered voters over the last few years, which not only is twice the statewide rate, but makes the district one of the fastest growing district in the state.

It is one of a handful of state Senate districts (and the only one outside of Baton Rouge/New Orleans) containing a Republican voter registration plurality. Accordingly, it can be counted on to support Republican candidates even when Acadiana-based Democrats are on the ballot. Without the “Acadiana factor”, Republicans can receive about 70-75% support in the district. With the “Acadiana factor”, the Republican vote is reduced to about 60%, which is still a healthy majority.

Despite this strong Republican preference, Democrats were still competitive in legislative races in south Lafayette here until the late 1980s. From 1966 to 1980, Democrat “Sonny” Mouton was its state Senator, and he left to make an unsuccessful run for Governor. Democrat Allen Bares succeeded him, and served 3 terms, even surviving an attempted rematch from Mouton in 1983. The 1991 reapportionment changed the demographics of the district, as African-American precincts were removed from the district to create an African-American majority district that (then) stretched from New Iberia to the northern fringes of St. Landry Parish. This reconfiguration contributed to Sen. Bares’ 60-40% defeat by Republican Max Jordan in the 1991 runoff. Jordan served for two terms, and while he was re-elected 61-32% against two Democrats in 1995, Democrat-turned-Republican state Representative Mike Michot challenged him in the 1999 primary and won with a 68-32% margin. Michot was re-elected with 88% in 2003.

Senator Michot was unopposed in 2007, and is allowed to serve one more term. Even when he is forced to retire in 2011, we rate this seat as a “Republican hold”, particularly since Democrats haven’t been victorious here since 1987.