Lydia Jackson (D)
Term limited in 2015
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 20,689 (75%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 6,756 (25%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 17,856 (70%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 7,791 (30%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 12,677 (31%)
John Kerry (D) 27,694 (68%)
Others 201 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 11,154 (29%)
Chris John (D) 14,495 (38%)
Others 12,361 (33%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 1,499 (8%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 11,182 (59%)
Mike Francis (R) 3,372 (18%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 1,009 (5%)
Others 1,996 (10%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 6,813 (29%)
Walter Boasso (D) 6,944 (29%)
John Georges (I) 2,509 (11%)
Foster Campbell (D) 7,138 (30%)
Others 305 (1%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 13,235 (62%)
Mike Strain (R) 4,561 (21%)
Wayne Carter (R) 2,678 (12%)
Don Johnson (R) 994 (5%)

Senate District 39 was reconfigured in 1983 to elect an African-American, and in fact was the only African-American majority state senate district outside of Baton Rouge and New Orleans until 1991. At initial glance, the district appears to be mostly rural, as it includes the northern portion of Caddo Parish all the way to the Arkansas border. Closer inspection, however, reveals that the district really has three distinct parts. First, the inner-city neighborhoods in the western half of Shreveport contain 67% of the voters and are about 85% African-American. The suburban fringe northwest of Shreveport encompassing Cross Lake and the town of Blanchard casts about 21% of the vote and is about 20% African-American. The remainder of the district (about 12%) is rural precincts from Blanchard up to the Arkansas border and is also 20% African-American.

The political implication of this demographic mix is that, thanks to the solid African-American majorities in the city of Shreveport, Democrats already have about 60% of the district vote without receiving a single vote in the suburbs or rural areas. Accordingly, the district turns in predictable 70-75% Democratic majorities here, no matter how large of a margin the Republicans roll up in the rural or suburban areas. Interestingly, there is kind of a racial equilibrium here, as the district’s 64% African-American percentage has remained about the same for the past few years, and the district has gained voters at about the statewide rate, with growth in all three parts of the district.

The district’s Senate representation has also been steady: only two of the last 7 elections since 1983 have even been contested. Greg Tarver, the first African-American state Senator from Shreveport, was elected in an upset over a white incumbent in the 1983 runoff, and served for five terms. His only competitive race after the initial contest was a 1995 challenge from former state Representative C.O. Simpkins, which Tarver still won 56-28%. When Tarver retired in 2003, he was succeeded by state representative Lydia Jackson, who was elected in the primary with 71% of the vote.

Sen. Jackson is allowed two more terms under current law and was unopposed in 2007. Given the district’s history, she should have no trouble retaining the seat. And even when she retires in 2015, an African-American Democrat is assured of victory here. We therefore rate this seat as a “Democratic hold.”