2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 25,880 (90%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 2,808 (10%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 23,980 (79%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 6,240 (21%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 5,217 (13%)
John Kerry (D) 36,427 (87%)
Others 194 (0%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 4,775 (12%)
Chris John (D) 17,994 (45%)
Others 17,225 (43%)

2006 New Orleans Mayor Runoff
Mitch Landrieu (D) 4,389 (31%)
Ray Nagin (D) 9,993 (69%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 493 (16%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 1,978 (64%)
Mike Francis (R) 109 (4%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 266 (9%)
Others 232 (7%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 2,080 (18%)
Walter Boasso (D) 2,704 (23%)
John Georges (I) 5,678 (49%)
Foster Campbell (D) 1,040 (9%)
Others 174 (1%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 7,572 (72%)
Mike Strain (R) 1,228 (12%)
Wayne Carter (R) 860 (8%)
Don Johnson (R) 852 (8%)

New Orleans East is a section of New Orleans East of the Industrial Canal that is a mixture of middle class subdivisions, industry, and miles of swampland. Senate District 2 includes most of this area, as well as an area near the junction of the Industrial Canal and the Mississippi River known as the “Lower 9th Ward.”.

Demographically, the district has a solid (86%) African-American majority, which is up from 84% of the vote a few years ago. In fact, this state Senate district is one of the few parts of New Orleans to have a steadily increasing African-American voting population. It would be a mistake, however, to consider this district an inner-city district, because while the district includes lower-income neighborhoods in the Lower 9th Ward, it also includes middle to upper middle income neighborhoods along I-10. And in a few scattered New Orleans East precincts (particularly east of Paris Road/I-510), there are still a significant number of white (and lately Vietnamese) voters.

Despite the variety in income levels in the district, the district solidly prefers Democrats in contested races, with Republicans only getting about 10% support district-wide. It is worth noting, however, that Ray Nagin’s endorsement of Bobby Jindal’s candidacy actually helped him get 21% of the vote here (although without this support in 2007, Jindal slipped to 18% of the vote). Overall, the district lost 6% of its voters since 2003 thanks to the major flood damage inflicted by Katrina’s storm surge and levee breaks, with most areas seeing up to 12 feet of water. And in the case of the Lower 9th Ward, flooding occurred again during Hurricane Rita.

Originally, this district was a white majority district, but racial changes in New Orleans East resulted in the 1985 election of the district’s first African-American state Senator, Jon Johnson, in an open seat situation. After being unopposed in his 1987 and 1991 races, however, he was held to 54% of the vote in the 1995 primary. In 1999, he was forced into a runoff and again received 54%. Then after leading in the 2003 primary 49-36%, he lost the runoff 53-47% to another African-American, Ann Duplessis. In the 2003 runoff, Sen. Johnson scored an impressive 62% in the Lower 9th Ward and even held Duplessis to 53% of the vote in the “far east” precincts. The key to Sen. Duplessis’ victory, however, was her strong 57% of the vote in the New Orleans East precincts.

Senator Duplessis is allowed to serve two more terms. While the district’s demographics lead us to rate this seat as a “Democratic hold”, the district’s recent dissatisfaction with its incumbents (three incumbent legislators in the area were defeated in 2003) means that Sen. Duplessis can’t take her re-election for granted. Jon Johnson sought a rematch in 2007 and forced Duplessis into a runoff. Though she defeated him with a slightly reduced 52% of the vote, she lost ground in most of the 9th Ward relative to her 2003 race. Two things saved her: (1) she got 59% of the vote in precincts east of Paris Road that gave her 53% in 2003 and are further along in the recovery process, and (2) because these precincts have more people who have returned, their share of the district vote increased from 8 to 13%.

What do we project the 2010 population to be for Senate District 2? In the mayor’s runoff held earlier this year, about 14,400 voted in person, while 7,800 (or a very high 35%) absentee voted. Since this was a high-profile race that garnered national attention, the 22,200 turnout suggests a current or future electorate of about 29,600. Since there are currently about 62,900 registered voters in the district, we project that the district has lost about 53% of its population (the difference between the 62,900 on the voter registration rolls and the 29,600 we think are still active voters). Furthermore, the election results from the 2006 Mayor’s race suggest a current African-American voter influence of 87% (as opposed to the 86% on the voter rolls). Interestingly, this is one of the few parts of New Orleans where the African-American voting influence has actually increased since Katrina.

Senate District 1
Senate District 2
Senate District 3
Senate District 4
Senate District 5
Senate District 6
Senate District 7
Senate District 8
Senate District 9
Senate District 10
Senate District 11
Senate District 12
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Senate District 24
Senate District 25
Senate District 26
Senate District 27
Senate District 28
Senate District 29
Senate District 30
Senate District 31
Senate District 32
Senate District 33
Senate District 34
Senate District 35
Senate District 36
Senate District 37
Senate District 38
Senate District 39

Republicans have gained a net of one house seat as a result of the October primary (Kenner Democrat Glenn Ansardi recently switched parties, and his term limited House seat has two Republicans in the runoff).

House District 1
House District 2
House District 3
House District 4
House District 5
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House District 7
House District 8
House District 9
House District 10
House District 11
House District 12
House District 13
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House District 28
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House District 31
House District 32
House District 33
House District 34
House District 35
House District 36
House District 37
House District 38
House District 39
House District 40
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House District 42
House District 43
House District 44
House District 45
House District 46
House District 47
House District 48
House District 49
House District 50
House District 51
House District 52
House District 53
House District 54
House District 55
House District 56
House District 57
House District 58
House District 59
House District 60
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House District 64
House District 65
House District 66
House District 67
House District 68
House District 69
House District 70
House District 71
House District 72
House District 73
House District 74
House District 75
House District 76
House District 77
House District 78
House District 79
House District 80
House District 81
House District 82
House District 83
House District 84
House District 85
House District 86
House District 87
House District 88
House District 89
House District 90
House District 91
House District 92
House District 93
House District 94
House District 95
House District 96
House District 97
House District 98
House District 99
House District 100
House District 101
House District 102
House District 103
House District 104
House District 105

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 5,539 (57%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 4,135 (43%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 5,228 (50%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 5,309 (50%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 7,366 (49%)
John Kerry (D) 7,534 (50%)
Others 91 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 6,896 (49%)
Chris John (D) 3,829 (27%)
Others 3,394 (24%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 917 (26%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 1,088 (31%)
Mike Francis (R) 375 (11%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 853 (24%)
Others 263 (8%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 4,604 (54%)
Walter Boasso (D) 1,120 (13%)
John Georges (I) 2,301 (27%)
Foster Campbell (D) 344 (4%)
Others 128 (2%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 3,305 (43%)
Mike Strain (R) 2,822 (37%)
Wayne Carter (R) 1,218 (16%)
Don Johnson (R) 380 (5%)

While the Eastbank of Jefferson Parish (Metairie and Kenner) is thought of as predominately Republican, there are precincts here and there with enough African-Americans and blue-collar voters for Democrats to be competitive. House District 92 is one of those areas. It mostly includes Kenner south of Esplanade Boulevard and its more Democratic neighborhoods around the New Orleans airport.

Demographically, the district has a voter population almost exactly what it was in 2003. Democrats have the edge here, but not overwhelmingly, thanks to its 37% African-American (up from 35% in 2003) voter population. It has supported Mary Landrieu with 57% and John Kerry with 50%. Even hometown congressman David Vitter failed to receive an absolute majority of the vote here, as he carried the district 49-27% of the vote. Interestingly, Bobby Jindal received about 10% of the African-American vote here (probably due to the Ray Nagin endorsement), and carried the district 51-49%.

Jefferson Parish voters tend to re-elect their legislative incumbents without much fuss, and this district is no exception: it has been represented since 1986 by Democrat Glenn Ansardi, who has only been opposed once (in 1991); even then, he was re-elected with 69% of the vote. Even though he is term-limited, he recently switched to the Republican Party.

Normally, term-limited legislative seats create pickup opportunities for Republicans, except in metro New Orleans, where Republicans have captured most of the winnable seats 20-30 years ago. Due to the current and future demographics of this district, we rate this district as a likely Democratic hold in 2007. However, it is worth noticing that Republican Phil Capitano was elected mayor of Kenner in 2004 by actually carrying the African-American neighborhoods – highly unusual for a Republican. And of the three candidates running, two (Michael McMyne and attorney/registered nurse Tom Willmott) are Republicans. Michael Austin is the Democratic candidate.

We see modest to impact to the population of the district due to Hurricane Katrina. Kenner received major wind damage from the storm and was “off limits” to residents for several weeks. Its airport was even used to house medical patients in the aftermath of the storm. However, Kenner and Jefferson Parish have been rebuilding in the wake of the storm, and will likely suffer minor (5-10%) population loss - so far, voter registration figures have shown a loss of about 500 voters since Katrina.

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 20,689 (75%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 6,756 (25%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 17,856 (70%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 7,791 (30%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 12,677 (31%)
John Kerry (D) 27,694 (68%)
Others 201 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 11,154 (29%)
Chris John (D) 14,495 (38%)
Others 12,361 (33%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 1,499 (8%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 11,182 (59%)
Mike Francis (R) 3,372 (18%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 1,009 (5%)
Others 1,996 (10%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 6,813 (29%)
Walter Boasso (D) 6,944 (29%)
John Georges (I) 2,509 (11%)
Foster Campbell (D) 7,138 (30%)
Others 305 (1%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 13,235 (62%)
Mike Strain (R) 4,561 (21%)
Wayne Carter (R) 2,678 (12%)
Don Johnson (R) 994 (5%)

Senate District 39 was reconfigured in 1983 to elect an African-American, and in fact was the only African-American majority state senate district outside of Baton Rouge and New Orleans until 1991. At initial glance, the district appears to be mostly rural, as it includes the northern portion of Caddo Parish all the way to the Arkansas border. Closer inspection, however, reveals that the district really has three distinct parts. First, the inner-city neighborhoods in the western half of Shreveport contain 67% of the voters and are about 85% African-American. The suburban fringe northwest of Shreveport encompassing Cross Lake and the town of Blanchard casts about 21% of the vote and is about 20% African-American. The remainder of the district (about 12%) is rural precincts from Blanchard up to the Arkansas border and is also 20% African-American.

The political implication of this demographic mix is that, thanks to the solid African-American majorities in the city of Shreveport, Democrats already have about 60% of the district vote without receiving a single vote in the suburbs or rural areas. Accordingly, the district turns in predictable 70-75% Democratic majorities here, no matter how large of a margin the Republicans roll up in the rural or suburban areas. Interestingly, there is kind of a racial equilibrium here, as the district’s 64% African-American percentage has remained about the same for the past few years, and the district has gained voters at about the statewide rate, with growth in all three parts of the district.

The district’s Senate representation has also been steady: only two of the last 7 elections since 1983 have even been contested. Greg Tarver, the first African-American state Senator from Shreveport, was elected in an upset over a white incumbent in the 1983 runoff, and served for five terms. His only competitive race after the initial contest was a 1995 challenge from former state Representative C.O. Simpkins, which Tarver still won 56-28%. When Tarver retired in 2003, he was succeeded by state representative Lydia Jackson, who was elected in the primary with 71% of the vote.

Sen. Jackson is allowed two more terms under current law and was unopposed in 2007. Given the district’s history, she should have no trouble retaining the seat. And even when she retires in 2015, an African-American Democrat is assured of victory here. We therefore rate this seat as a “Democratic hold.”

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 15,054 (47%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 17,197 (53%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 13,503 (43%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 17,747 (57%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 30,449 (62%)
John Kerry (D) 18,635 (38%)
Others 274 (0%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 26,789 (58%)
Chris John (D) 11,628 (25%)
Others 8,095 (17%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 4,504 (20%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 6,867 (30%)
Mike Francis (R) 7,633 (34%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 1,317 (6%)
Others 2,180 (10%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 16,988 (52%)
Walter Boasso (D) 5,582 (17%)
John Georges (I) 3,179 (10%)
Foster Campbell (D) 6,507 (20%)
Others 358 (1%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 12,046 (39%)
Mike Strain (R) 11,219 (37%)
Wayne Carter (R) 5,548 (18%)
Don Johnson (R) 1,750 (6%)

Senate District 38 is one of several districts that has remained largely unchanged over the years. It contains portions of Caddo Parish south of Cross Lake and the Inner Loop, plus all of rural DeSoto Parish to the south. It has a modest but increasing (from 26 to 29%) percentage of African-American voters due to significant demographic changes in the district’s portion of Caddo Parish. Its 7% growth in registered voters was three times the statewide growth, with nearly all of the addition coming from the Caddo Parish suburbs of Shreveport.

Though DeSoto Parish tends to support Democrats due to the 37% African-American percentage, the Democratic support is generally offset by Republican margins in Caddo Parish, leading to typical levels of Republican support from Suxy Terrell’s 53% support to George Bush’s and David Vitter’s 62% and 58% support here. In fact, Caddo Parish currently accounts for 77% of the electorate, and future population trends currently favor Caddo Parish. However, there may be a slight Democratic trend here: Jindal’s support slipped 5% (from 57 in 2003 to 52 in 2007%), due to the significant demographic changes in the Caddo Parish portion of the district in recent years.

Unlike most Senate districts in North Louisiana, this seat has had competitive races for years. Democrat Richard Neeson represented the district from 1980-1992. He narrowly defeated Republican Ron Beene in 1987. When Senator Neeson retired in 1991, Ron Beene was elected with 51% of the vote in 1991 and 50-42% in 1995 against more outspoken conservative Republicans. Though he was re-elected 71-29% against a fellow Republican in 1999, he retired in 2003, endorsing his legislative assistant Sherri Smith Cheek.

Cheek led in the primary 35-32% over Democrat Forrest Davis. The remaining 33% of the vote went to two other Shreveport-based Republicans. The combined Republican vote of 68% with similar Republican percentages in both parishes undoubtedly contributed to Davis’ decision not to contest the runoff.

Though Senator Smith will not be term limited until 2015, she had to fight to win re-election against Republican attorney Alan Seabaugh in 2007. Her 53% victory was almost entirely due to her 60% support in DeSoto Parish. Interestingly, this is the fourth time that DeSoto Parish played a major part in providing the margin of victory. It will be interesting to see whether her 2011 re-election involves strong opposition from Democrats or Republicans.

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 12,706 (45%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 15,428 (55%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 10,462 (40%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 15,897 (60%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 27,062 (64%)
John Kerry (D) 14,903 (35%)
Others 357 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 23,600 (60%)
Chris John (D) 9,075 (23%)
Others 6,452 (17%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 4,054 (23%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 4,107 (23%)
Mike Francis (R) 6,792 (39%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 1,025 (6%)
Others 1,665 (9%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 14,878 (59%)
Walter Boasso (D) 3,179 (13%)
John Georges (I) 2,641 (10%)
Foster Campbell (D) 4,227 (17%)
Others 245 (1%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 7,143 (30%)
Mike Strain (R) 10,165 (43%)
Wayne Carter (R) 4,652 (20%)
Don Johnson (R) 1,678 (7%)

District 37 is one of several Shreveport-area Senate districts. It is almost equally balanced between Caddo and Bossier Parishes, with slightly more than half the voters living in Caddo Parish. It has a modest (23%) African-American voter population, with a slightly higher African-American percentage in Caddo. The district has grown slowly over the fast several years, as it includes the more settled parts of both parishes. Specifically, the district contains portions of Shreveport south of downtown and east of I-49, while the Bossier Parish portions are generally south of the I-220 loop and between the Red River and Barksdale Air Force Base.

With its moderate African-American population, its makeup of settled “garden district” neighborhoods, and its modest but not overwhelming Republican lean, Senate District 37 bears a striking resemblance to House District 68 in the “garden district” of Baton Rouge. While District 68 has typically given 53-61% support for Republicans (with “weak” support for Suzy Terrell and “strong” support for Bobby Jindal), Senate District 37 has given Republicans 55-64% support with a nearly identical African-American population.

Like House District 68, Senate District 37 has competitive races, as Democrats have adapted to the local terrain and have run attractive candidates. Democrat Sydney Nelson represented the district from 1980 to 1992 with little opposition. When he retired, Democrat Greg Barro won a hotly contested runoff against a Republican, carrying Caddo overwhelmingly while losing Bossier. Senator Barro missed making the runoff in 1995, and the victor, Republican Max Malone, was elected 59-41% with solid margins in Bossier and a narrow margin in Caddo. Malone was closely pressed in his 1999 re-election race, defeating Democrat Don Pierson 51-49%, thanks to a 52% margin in Caddo. Pierson sought a rematch in 2003, but this time, Malone was victorious in the primary with 60% support in both parishes.

Senator Malone is term-limited in 2007. We rate this district as a “likely Republican hold.” There are four Republicans and one Democrat running for the seat. The Republican candidates are term-limited (and recent party switcher) state representative Billy Montgomery, educator and former state representative “Buddy” Shaw, oilman and party activist Jay Murrell, and businessman Barrow Peacock. The Democrat running is African-American attorney Sheva Sims, whose candidacy will supposedly impact the Montgomery campaign, as he was expected to win the lions share of Democratic votes.

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 15,757 (49%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 16,088 (51%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 16,187 (49%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 16,514 (51%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 31,077 (63%)
John Kerry (D) 17,314 (35%)
Others 884 (2%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 26,131 (58%)
Chris John (D) 11,311 (25%)
Others 7,554 (17%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 3,565 (19%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 4,805 (25%)
Mike Francis (R) 6,890 (36%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 1,613 (9%)
Others 2,185 (11%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 16,497 (48%)
Walter Boasso (D) 4,333 (13%)
John Georges (I) 2,871 (8%)
Foster Campbell (D) 9,914 (29%)
Others 479 (1%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 12,684 (40%)
Mike Strain (R) 10,162 (32%)
Wayne Carter (R) 6,271 (20%)
Don Johnson (R) 2,531 (8%)

Senate District 36 is located in Northwest Louisiana and contains a mixture of suburbs and rural areas. It contains all of Bienville and Webster Parishes, plus parts of Bossier, Claiborne, and Red River Parishes. There is basically an urban/rural split here both demographically and politically. In demographic terms, the suburban precincts of Bossier away from the Red River are 15% black and cast 44% of the vote (up from 40% in 2003) today and can be counted on to support Republicans in contested elections. The rural areas are 35% African-American and lean Democratic in most elections, although in 2004, both George Bush and David Vitter received over 50% of the vote in the rural parishes. Future trends clearly favor the Republicans, as the Bossier Parish precincts have 11% more voters than they did in 2003 (over four times the statewide rate of increase), while the rural areas lost about 2% of their voter population. Overall, the district has seen an increase of 4% in its voter population, while the African-American influence has dropped from 28 to 27%, thanks to strong growth in Bossier Parish.

Overall, the district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly. Suzy Terrell and “Bobby” Jindal received 51% of the vote in 2003, while Bush and Vitter were victorious with 63-35% and 58-25% percentages. Though “Bobby” Jindal’s support slipped to 48% of the vote in 2007, that was due to the candidacy of former state senator Foster Campbell, which drew 29% support here – the only two parishes he carried were in the district.

The district’s conservative leanings in elections, however, were not reflected in its state Senate representation for some time. From 1975 to his election to the Public Service Commission in 2002, populist Democrat Foster Campbell represented the area and re-elected by wide margins. When his seat opened up after his election to the Public Service Commission, former state representative Robert Adley, a conservative Democrat, was elected in the runoff with 68% of the vote (and 75% of the vote in Bossier Parish). He was unopposed for re-election in 2003.

Senator Adley is allowed two more terms under the state’s term-limits law. He easily defeated his Republican opponent (a 21 year old college student) with 73% of the vote. We rate this seat as a “Democratic hold” as long as Adley is the incumbent. When he retires, the increasing influence of Bossier Parish leads us to rate this district as “leans Republican.”

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 9,351 (32%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 20,052 (68%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 14,587 (44%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 18,150 (56%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 35,189 (71%)
John Kerry (D) 13,842 (28%)
Others 509 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 30,626 (66%)
Chris John (D) 9,519 (21%)
Others 6,351 (13%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 5,830 (29%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 3,484 (17%)
Mike Francis (R) 8,249 (41%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 1,486 (7%)
Others 1,280 (6%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 18,921 (61%)
Walter Boasso (D) 4,153 (13%)
John Georges (I) 3,701 (12%)
Foster Campbell (D) 3,906 (13%)
Others 432 (1%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 10,072 (34%)
Mike Strain (R) 13,952 (47%)
Wayne Carter (R) 3,295 (11%)
Don Johnson (R) 2,308 (8%)

Senate District 35 is a good example of the shifting preferences of north Louisiana voters from conservative Democrat to Republican. It contains all of two parishes and a portion a third: 14% of its voters live in rural Jackson Parish and another 35% live in Lincoln Parish (home to Louisiana Tech and Grambling universities). The remaining 51% of the district is a portion of Ouachita Parish stretching from the Lincoln Parish line to the northern fringe of Monroe, almost to the University of Louisiana-Monroe campus.

Typically, the Republican preferences of Ouachita and Lincoln Parish offset any Democratic margins in rural Jackson Parish, although Jackson Parish has lately been more willing to support Republicans. This was most apparent last year when Congressman Rodney Alexander (who lives in the parish) switched to the Republican Party and was handily re-elected, with strong (70%) support from the district.

Typically, Republican candidates receive good margins of support from the districts’ voters from Bobby Jindal’s 56% (in 2003) to George Bush’s 71% in 2004. It has a modest (20%) African-American population mostly in and around Grambling in Lincoln Parish. It has grown slightly less than the statewide average, as gains in Ouachita and Parish are partially offset by a decline in the voter population in Jackson and Lincoln Parishes.

From 1987-1999, Democrat Randy Ewing (described by John Maginnis as “the Senate’s most effective voice for reform”) represented the district. He was chosen by Mike Foster in 1995 to be Senate President. He retired in 1999 and was replaced by Democrat Bill Jones (brother of former LSU and pro quarterback Bert Jones). Jones, however, did not enjoy a lengthy tenure like Ewing did; retired judge Bob Kostelka defeated him 52-48% in a bitter campaign in 2003. The patterns of support were generally along geographical lines: Kostelka received 62% in his home parish of Ouachita while Jones received 60% in Lincoln. The “tie breaker” was Jackson Parish, which only gave the Democratic incumbent a 90-vote margin.

Though there were nasty feelings from the 2003 race, the district’s consistent support for Republican candidates, Ouachita Parish’s increasing influence, and the willingness of Jackson Parish (the “neutral ground”) to support Republicans were built in advantages Sen. Kostelka had for his re-election campaign. In the end, he ended up running unopposed in that race. He is allowed to serve two more terms, and when he retires, we rate this race as a “likely Republican hold.”

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 17,486 (68%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 8,134 (32%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 20,687 (74%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 7,158 (26%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 13,762 (37%)
John Kerry (D) 23,284 (62%)
Others 473 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 11,539 (33%)
Chris John (D) 11,872 (34%)
Others 11,932 (33%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 2,240 (16%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 5,741 (40%)
Mike Francis (R) 4,294 (30%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 890 (6%)
Others 1,094 (8%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 8,459 (31%)
Walter Boasso (D) 7,205 (26%)
John Georges (I) 3,089 (12%)
Foster Campbell (D) 6,685 (25%)
Others 1,008 (4%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 16,073 (66%)
Mike Strain (R) 5,630 (23%)
Wayne Carter (R) 1,385 (6%)
Don Johnson (R) 1,426 (6%)

Before 1991, African-American representation in the state Senate consisted almost entirely of a handful of lawmakers from Baton Rouge and New Orleans. That changed starting in 1991, with Senate District 34 being one of the newly created African-American majority Senate districts outside of Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

District 34 contains all or part of six northeast Louisiana parishes, and is almost evenly split between urban and rural areas. Its rural portions include all of the delta parishes of East Carroll, Madison, and Tensas, as well as the African-American parts of Ferriday in Concordia Parish. Its urban area is African-American neighborhoods in southern Monroe. Connecting these two areas is a section of Richland Parish roughly north of I-20 which is largely rural and about 60% white. The Monroe precincts currently cast 52% of the district’s vote and are 73% African-American. The rural precincts are 55% African-American. Overall, the district has lost 1% of its voters since 2003 due to a continued population exodus from the Delta parishes, while the Monroe precincts have seen a slight uptick in its voter count.

This district was created in 1991 from parts of three northeast Louisiana Senate districts and was designed in 1991 to elect an African-American. It has a 65% African-American voter base (up slightly from 63% in 2003), and consistently supports Democratic candidates with 62-74% of the vote. Even Chris John managed to edge out David Vitter with a 34-33% lead, thanks to a 37-23% margin in Monroe. And Congressman Alexander ran behind 43-49% here in his re-election race as a Republican – his 55-35% lead in the rural areas was canceled by a 30-62% deficit in Monroe. And while “Bobby” Jindal “carried” the district with 32% of the vote against divided Democratic opposition, he surely would have lost the district against unified opposition.

This “urban/rural split” of the district initially led to some lively contests here. C. D. Jones, after 12 years in the House representing an inner-city Monroe district, ran for this newly created seat in 1991, and was held to a 50-45% lead over Democrat “Mike” Thompson. In 1995, Republican John Hogue held him to a 59-41% lead. Since then, Senator Jones has been unopposed. What is noteworthy about Senator Jones’ first two races was that he was clearly helped by solid margins in Monroe (67-30% in 1991, and 75-25% in 1995). In the rural areas, he apparently ran behind the racial percentages, losing both times, 38-56% in 1991 and 48-52% in 1995 against a Republican.

C.D. Jones was term-limited in 2007. Though the candidates running (a white and two African-American Democrats) were similar to those in the 1991 race, this time, the rural white candidate, term-limited state representative Francis Thompson, won. His 32 year House incumbency obviously was an asset and enabled him to eat into the African-American vote. Not only did he get 35% of the vote in Monroe (the white candidate only received 30% in 1991), but he swept all of the rural parishes to lead there with 64% of the vote. In the end, Rep. Thompson won 52-40%.